►TAIPEI, June 2 -- President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) On Shaky Ground
►BEIJING, June 7 -- Huang Ju (黃菊), a spy in the family?,

Taiwan's President On Shaky Ground Missteps, Scandal Erode Leadership By Edward Cody Washington Post Foreign Service Friday, June 2, 2006; Page A13 TAIPEI, Taiwan, June 1 -- President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), Taiwan's ardent champion of independence, has been gravely wounded by a string of political missteps and mounting corruption allegations against his family, undermining his leadership and raising doubts about the remaining two years of his term. In an unusual step, Chen announced Wednesday night that he was relinquishing command over domestic policies to his premier, Su Tseng-chang(蘇貞昌), and would stay out of his Democratic Progressive Party(民進黨)'s political affairs, including campaigning. Chen said he was engaged in "deep reflection and reexamination" of his attitude toward the members of his entourage and family who are accused of wrongdoing, particularly a son-in-law jailed last week on charges of insider trading. The opposition Nationalist Party(國民黨), meanwhile, gathered 111 signatures on an impeachment motion in the Legislative Yuan(立法院), or parliament(國會), amounting to nearly half the 225 members. Although falling well below the two-thirds majority necessary for impeachment, the campaign provided a forum for Chen's opponents, and some of his followers, to attack his credibility on a broad variety of issues, including the struggle to advance Taiwan toward independence. "This is very serious," said Lin Cho-shui(林濁水), a Legislative Yuan member from Chen's party and a firm believer in Taiwanese independence(台獨). "He can't be an effective leader anymore. His policies have not inspired a lot of confidence. If it were just his family members' problems, it would not be so serious, but there also have been political problems, particularly relations with the United States." The sudden storm of scandal and accusations of bumbling leadership raised questions about what the unpredictable Chen might do to regain balance. Some analysts suggested he would become more prudent, scaling back efforts to push this self-ruled island toward formal independence. But others predicted a bold move to revive support among the many Taiwanese who believe that their homeland should be independent in law as well as fact despite China's resolve to absorb it into the mainland. "Don't be surprised if he rises up out of all this," said Bikhim Hsiao(蕭美琴), a Democratic Progressive Party legislator and strong Chen supporter. "He's in trouble, but he's not defeated." Su Chi(蘇起), a Nationalist member of the Legislative Yuan, suggested that Chen might try to radically alter the Taiwanese constitution to emphasize independence, then submit his proposal to a referendum in hopes of rallying public support on the nationalism issue, as he did in winning election in 2000 and 2004. China and the United States have both warned against such a course, reminding Chen that he has repeatedly promised not to substantially change the constitution. In a recent interview, Chen pledged to follow legal procedure in changing the constitution, which requires him to submit any amendments to the legislature, where Nationalists hold a thin majority. But Su warned that Chen, a lawyer known for political sleight of hand, might find a way to circumvent that pledge despite the warnings from Beijing and Washington. The crisis, which has been building for months, hit a peak after Chen's son-in-law, Chao Chien-ming(趙建銘), was taken into custody last week on charges that he bought stocks in the Taiwan Development Corp.(台開) after being tipped by a senior company official at a dinner party that it was about to receive a $300 million loan. On Thursday night, Chen's office announced the resignation of Ma Yung-cheng(馬永成), a deputy secretary general of the presidential staff who faced allegations that he was involved with the same insider stock deal. Reports have long circulated in Taipei, the capital, that Chen's wife, Wu Shu-chen(吳淑珍), also has profited financially from her husband's position. These allegations have never been proved, and no charges have been brought. But Chao's arrest revived the suspicions about his mother-in-law, lending credence to what had been little more than rumors. In addition, a top presidential aide, Chen Tse-nian (陳哲男), was arrested recently in connection with financial irregularities in the construction of a high-speed railway between major Taiwanese cities after he was photographed gambling at a South Korean casino. Bikhim said Chao's arrest particularly sapped morale in the Democratic Progressive Party because it undermined one of Chen's two "core values," Taiwanese national identity and clean government. Moreover, the signs of sleaze arose against a background of political trouble. In particular, Chen's decision to do away with the National Reunification Council last February was seen by many Taiwanese, particularly Nationalists, as a rash and unnecessary provocation of China. It also angered the Bush administration, diplomatic sources said, and led U.S. officials to refuse Chen's request for a stopover in the United States during a flight to Latin America. The United States, which has promised to help Taiwan defend itself, has long been regarded here as an indispensable ally. Chen's decision on the reunification council, followed by the spectacle of being turned away by irritated U.S. officials, created an impression that Taiwan had an unsteady hand on the tiller. Recent public opinion polls have shown Chen supported by only 20 percent of those surveyed. Chiu Yi(邱毅), a Nationalist legislator who brought many of the allegations against Chen's family, predicted others will follow, suggesting Chen could be further weakened in the weeks and months to come. In particular, he charged, Chen's wife can be linked to suspicious and perhaps illegal dealings with several large holding companies. "If I were Chen Shui-bian, with all that's coming out, I would step down," said Chiu, a Cornell-trained economist. Chiu was invited to Peking University last week to speak to students on his campaign against Chen, who is widely despised in China. But after he told Beijing-based reporters that Taiwan's democracy and free press were essential in allowing him to air his charges, officials from the Chinese government's Taiwan Affairs Office told him he could not make the speech.

Chinese Official Reappears, but Mystery Persists Long-Absent Vice Premier Has Key Roles By Edward Cody Washington Post Foreign Service Thursday, June 8, 2006; A16 BEIJING, June 7 -- Suddenly Huang Ju (黃菊) was back, with the familiar quizzical eyebrows arching from behind large wire-framed glasses, sitting alongside other members of the Chinese Communist Party (中國共產黨)'s supreme policymaking body, the Politburo's nine-member Standing Committee. Huang's return, which was broadcast on official television Monday evening and reported prominently in the next day's People's Daily, came after five months during which he had dropped from sight, generating a swirl of rumors, reports and more or less informed speculation about what had happened to one of China's most powerful men. Huang's reemergence settled nothing about his status -- people still wondered whether he was deathly ill, under investigation for a security breach or tainted by a wife with her hand in the till. But it dramatically illustrated the secrecy behind which China's leaders work, a dark cloak that hides even the most mundane details about how they rule the world's most populous nation. The Bush administration has repeatedly urged China's leaders to be more open about their military buildup and long-term strategic intentions. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld voiced the demand yet again at a weekend conference in Singapore. But China's tradition of secrecy -- on military matters and nearly everything else that touches the party's senior ranks -- has proved durable over the years, rebuffing foreign and Chinese curiosity with equal resolve. The curiosity surrounding Huang was more than idle. For one thing, Huang, a vice premier, has been the party's overseer of economic reforms, vital to foreign investors and further modernization. Moreover, his seat on the Standing Committee, Chinese and foreign analysts pointed out, is key to President Hu Jintao(胡錦濤)'s attempts to solidify his party leadership before the 17th party congress scheduled for October 2007. Huang, they noted, belongs to the so-called Shanghai Faction left behind by former president and party leader Jiang Zemin(江澤民). Hu took over from Jiang as party leader in 2002 and as president the following year, but he has yet to push out all of Jiang's proteges and replace them with his own favorites. A recent attempt by Hu to appoint a loyalist as Shanghai's party secretary fell through, suggesting that Jiang's faction retains a measure of power, a veteran Western diplomat said. So when Huang dropped out of sight in January without explanation, people started asking questions. They got no authoritative answers, however, because that is not the way China's government works. Any news about senior leaders has to come from the official New China News Agency(新華社), which, agency journalists say, submits every story dealing with such officials to the party Propaganda Department before sending it out. Nothing about Huang's situation was authorized for release. The official media reported in April, and again in May, that Huang had sent messages to conferences that he normally would have attended. But nothing came down on his personal situation. A Foreign Ministry spokesman, asked about Huang's status, responded that he had nothing to offer. Without information, Beijing buzzed with rumors. Journalists talked about Huang's absence over lunch. Officials confided their theories to one another. An elderly couple said their friends were even discussing it during early morning exercises in the courtyard of their Beijing apartment block. The most believable rumor said Huang, 67, had received a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer and was undergoing therapy. This version received added credibility when a spokesman for the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference said March 2 that "Comrade Huang Ju was hospitalized for treatment because he was unwell. He is currently recovering." But other versions circulated as well. One said that Huang's wife, Yu Huiwen, was in police custody being investigated for financial irregularities and that Huang had been asked to step aside pending the investigation. Other reports said that Huang himself was under suspicion and that police were interrogating him as well as Yu. More recently, a mid-level official said he was told, in great detail, that Huang was indirectly involved in a security leak to Taiwan and was being extensively interrogated by national security officials at a government facility in the Beijing suburbs. Huang's daughter, the official said, had a long-standing relationship with a Taiwanese businessman whose father has ties to the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party(民進黨) of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian(陳水扁). Suspicions were aroused that the relationship might have become a conduit for state secrets through carelessness or espionage, he said. Hu and his lieutenants were particularly concerned, the official said he was told, because Chinese intelligence learned that the content of a Standing Committee(政治局常委) meeting on Taiwan policy was passed to Chen within days of its being held. Sorting out the reports was impossible, even for relatively well-informed Chinese. Many informed people bought into the cancer theory, particularly after the spokesman's comment in March, but they were far from sure and did not know how authoritative it was. "I've forgotten where I learned about it, maybe from my boss or colleagues," said a young official at a government ministry. "But my colleagues and I have been talking about it privately. It seems that everybody knows, but nobody knows where the news originally came from. Maybe some senior officials or people around him leaked the information. Who knows?" A young party official, speaking with friends, laughed at their attempts to find out for sure. "You want to confirm that information?" he said. "Forget about it." Huang appeared pale but steady during his brief appearance on China Central Television. He was shown attending a conference of scientists and engineers, sitting alongside other Standing Committee members: Hu; Premier Wen Jiabao(溫家寶); Wu Bangguo(吳邦國), chairman of the National People's Congress; Jia Qinglin(賈慶林), chairman of the People's Political Consultative Conference; Vice President Zeng Qinghong(曾慶红); Wu Guanzheng(吳官正), who monitors party discipline; Li Changchun(李長春), who directs party propaganda; and Luo Gan(羅干), the security chief. The People's Daily, the party organ, mentioned Huang on page one in his order of seniority with the other Standing Committee members. But the only photo showed Hu, prominent against a bright orange background under a bold headline saying he had delivered "an important speech" to the gathered scientists. Researcher Zhang Jing contributed to this report. © 2006 The Washington Post Company