http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/07/10/news/ma.php

In Taiwan, a star of cross-strait magnitude
By David Lague
International Herald Tribune

Published: July 10, 2006

TAIPEI In the politics of greater China, Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has unrivaled star quality.

Two years out from the next Taiwanese presidential election, the charismatic leader of the main opposition Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (國民黨), and mayor of Taipei is widely acknowledged as the clear front-runner. On the Chinese mainland where propaganda- powered personality cults have given way to a colorless, collective leadership, Ma enjoys a popularity that transcends one the most potentially explosive fault lines in Asia.

When in 2001, the U.S.-educated lawyer visited his birthplace, Hong Kong, enthusiastic locals turned on the sort of welcome the expatriate British reserved for starchy royals in colonial times. It was the same in majority-Chinese Singapore, where the telegenic Ma was feted earlier this year even while gently encouraging the stern People's Action Party to relax its authoritarian rule there.

To many in the wider Chinese community where restraint, courtesy and moderation retain their appeal, Ma combines these traditional virtues with something more fundamental - raw sex appeal.

"He's well educated. He's well mannered. He's very reasonable when he talks to people," said a political commentator and former Kuomintang lawmaker, Susie Chiang Su-hui (). "Oh, and he's very handsome."

As the embattled, pro-independence Taiwanese president, Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), reels under the weight of corruption scandals and ongoing hostility from Beijing, Ma, 56, is virtually in full campaign swing as he outlines his competing vision of a peace deal and rapid economic integration with China.

"The chances are better than any time in the past to reach some agreement with them," Ma said in a recent interview in his Taipei city hall office. "They now know it is not in their interest to start a war."

Under Chen, the Taiwanese economy expanded at a respectable 4 per cent last year with similar growth forecast for this year. But Ma and many of his supporters in the Taiwanese business community insist the island could do much better with closer ties to the supercharged Chinese economy.

"There is strong demand for more contact with the mainland," he said.

Despite the mainland's growing economic and military power, Ma said he believes the priority now for the ruling Communist Party is to block any move by Taiwan toward independence rather than forcing abrupt reunification.

He said he envisions a peace treaty that would preserve the status quo for up to fifty years while the two sides learn to live together, in short, to stall.

"Of course. It has to be done that way," he said. "Otherwise there can be no peace. You know, the mainland's main worry is that Taiwan is drifting away from their concept of one China."

Along with a populist style, Ma would also bring a Clintonesque mastery of detail if he can make the transition from city hall to the presidential palace.

As he describes his achievements in Taipei, he proudly recounts how the outlay of more than $10 billion over six years will have increased the proportion of waste water piped away for treatment from 41 per cent to 82 per cent by the end of the year.

Furthermore, he said, life expectancy in Taipei is this year expected to reach an island high of 80 years, the city subway carries 1.05 million people a day, a six-fold increase over 1997, and each Taipei resident now produces an average of 0.4 kilograms, or 0.9 pounds, of trash each day, sharply down from 1.12 kilograms when he was elected.

Ma plans to stand down as Taipei mayor at the end of the year when his current term expires so he can prepare for a presidential race that could have far reaching consequences for peace and security in Asia.

A return to power of one of the oldest political parties in Asia under Ma's leadership could be welcomed news for Beijing, which refuses to negotiate with Chen and his Democratic Progressive Party.

"What the mainland cares about is 'one-China,'" said Xu Shiquan (), vice chairman of the Beijing-based National Society of Taiwan Studies and an advisor to the Chinese government. "So long as Ma believes in 'one-China,' the mainland will certainly welcome such a position."

A decision to deal with Ma may, however, pose some danger for Beijing.

In a climate where the Internet, satellite television and a sometimes rebellious domestic media routinely circumvent censorship on the mainland, negotiating with Ma could open the mainland to the influence of a Kuomintang government for the first time in almost six decades.

And, by Beijing's standards, Ma is clearly a subversive. He suggests the transformation of Taiwan from authoritarian rule to democracy could be a useful example for political change in China.

"Taiwan has the potential to play a role in making mainland China more democratic, freer and pay more attention to what we would call an equitable distribution of wealth," Ma said. "You know Taiwanese have a lot of influence on the Chinese mainland, not only in the economic area, but also because of our existence in Taiwan as a democratic society."

Some political analysts predict that Ma's personal appeal and willingness to compete in the Taiwanese no-holds- barred democracy would almost certainly lead some mainland Chinese to make unflattering comparisons with their own, unelected leaders.

They note that since his rapturous reception in Hong Kong, he has not been allowed back.

But there are some signs Beijing might be willing to take some risks. The ruling Communist Party has been actively wooing senior Kuomintang figures. Ma's predecessor as party leader, Lien Chan (連戰), has now visited the mainland twice in the last year - the first official contacts between the two parties since the victorious Communist armies drove the Nationalists into exile on Taiwan in 1949.

The son of a Nationalist Party worker, Ma was an infant in 1951 when his family moved to Taiwan via the then British controlled Hong Kong. Like many of his generation with immediate family ties to the mainland, he says eventual reunification is an option for Taiwan. But, mindful of the overwhelming support in Taiwan for preservation of the island's de facto independence, he has also ruled out any prospect of unity until the mainland is a democracy.

He has also publicly demanded that Beijing re-evaluate the 1989 Tiananmen (天安門事件) crackdown as a condition for reunification talks.

With a doctorate in law from Harvard and blueblood Kuomintang credentials, Ma was fast-tracked through the party in the years before Taiwan became one of the most vibrant democracies in Asia. A fluent English speaker, he was an interpreter for the late President Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國) who launched the Taiwanese political liberalization in the late 1980s.

A Ma victory in 2008 would almost certainly please Washington where Chen is increasingly seen as recklessly provocative towards China. A measure of Washington's displeasure with Chen came last month when the United States refused his request for an overnight stay on his way to Latin America, instead limiting him to a brief refueling stop in Alaska. Chen immediately canceled plans for a stopover after what was widely perceived as a deliberate snub.

For Ma, it was a different story when he traveled to the United States for a nine-day visit in March.

The Kuomintang leader was given an opportunity to make a series of high profile speeches where he set out his plans for cooling tensions across the Taiwan Strait. And, his standing in Washington was confirmed when he met high ranking Bush-administration officials including the then deputy secretary of State, Robert Zoellick, and the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton. Ma said he also met top Pentagon officials.

Political analysts in Taiwan believe it is significant that China remained silent while the Kuomintang leader was afforded top level access in the United States.

At the end of the day, Ma does not share fears that the mainland's growing might necessarily spells danger.

"Beijing today is much more sophisticated in its dealings with Taiwan," he said. "As the mainland becomes stronger and more affluent, actually there is less tendency for them to use force right away."

After all, there are an estimated one million Taiwanese living on the mainland where the island's accumulated investment exceeded $100 billion. This investment had created more than 10 million jobs for mainlanders.

"To some people in Taiwan, China is perceived as a threat but more people see it as an opportunity," Ma said.

"What we should do is maximize the opportunity and minimize the threat."
 

http://ma19.net/Mnewsdet.asp?news_id=92

國際前鋒論壇報（International Herald Tribune）今天刊登專文「兩岸關係的台灣巨星」（In Taiwan, a star of cross-strait magnitude）指出 , 正當陳水扁總統身陷貪腐醜聞弊案中 , 並為北京的敵意所苦之際 , 國民黨主席馬英九正積極勾勒兩岸和平 , 以及快速經濟整合的願景。對於兩岸關係發展 , 馬英九強調 , 終極統一是台灣的選項之一 ; 他並排除了在中國民主化前兩岸統一的可能性。 他建議中國大陸 , 可拿台灣從威權統治走向民主的過程 , 做為大陸政治改革的有用範本 。

文中強調 , 在大中華區的政治圈中 , 馬英九享有無可匹敵的明星特質。現在離台灣下一次的總統大選還有兩年 , 但大家一致認為這位極具魅力的國民黨主席兼台北市長已明顯地跑在前面 。在宣傳堆積出的個人崇拜 , 已被毫無特色的集體領導所取代的中國大陸上 , 馬英九受歡迎的程度也穿越了這條亞洲最具爆炸力的斷層線 。

馬英九指出 , 台灣若與高動能的中國經濟關係密切 , 經濟表現將更亮眼。他說 , 台灣人民要求與大陸多加接觸的呼聲極高。他認為 , 儘管中國大陸經濟和軍事力量越來越強 , 但中國共產黨目前的首要任務應是阻撓台灣走向獨立 , 而非迫使兩岸立即統一 ; 兩岸因此應簽訂可讓現狀至少維持50年的和平協議 , 好讓兩岸學習如何共處 , 「這是必然之道 , 否則兩岸就無和平可言」。馬英九說 , 大陸的主要的憂慮是 , 「台灣正漂離一個中國的概念 。」

對於中國大陸國力日增是否構成危險的問題 , 馬英九表示不擔心 , 他說「北京在處理台灣議題上 , 已比以往世故多了。在大陸日益強大及富裕之際 , 他們動用武力的可能性就越低。」台灣畢竟約有100萬人現正旅居大陸 , 台商在大陸投資的總額更高達1千億美元 , 而這些投資為大陸創造了1千多萬個工作機會。馬英九指出 , 「對台灣某些人來說 , 中國是一個威脅 , 但更多人視中國為機會 ; 而我們該做的是 , 將機會極大化 , 並將威脅極小化 。」

文中指出 , 北京一直拒絕與陳水扁和民進黨對話 , 應該會歡迎馬英九領導的國民黨重新執政 , 但對北京來說 , 由於在中國大陸 , 網際網路 , 衛星電視及有時故意反叛的大陸媒體慣於規避審查 , 與馬英九談判可能讓大陸60年來首度受到國民黨的影響。同時 , 按照北京的標準 , 馬英九絕對是個顛覆份子 , 因為他建議中國可拿台灣從威權統治走向民主的過程 , 做為大陸政治改革的有用範本。馬英九表示 , 「台灣有潛能扮演協助中國大陸更民主 , 更自由 , 更均富的角色。台灣民眾對中國大陸極具影響力 , 這不只是在經濟層面上 , 還因台灣是個民主社會。」

這篇報導指出 , 有些分析家認為馬英九的個人魅力 , 及其願意在台灣民主中競爭的形象 , 勢必讓某些中國大陸民眾把他拿來和中國非民選領袖做比較。他們並指出 , 由於馬英九在香港太受歡迎 , 才會無法再次訪問香港。但某些跡象也顯示 , 北京或許願意冒險 , 因為中共一再積極爭取國民黨高層人士訪問大陸 , 前任國民黨主席連戰就在去年兩度訪問大陸 , 是國民黨遷台以來 , 兩黨的首次正式接觸 。

對於兩岸關係發展 , 馬英九表示兩岸最終統一是台灣的選項之一 ; 但由於絕大多數台灣民眾都支持維持台灣目前的實質獨立 , 馬英九也排除了在中國民主化前兩岸統一的可能性。同時 , 馬英九還公開要求北京重新評估1989年的天安門鎮壓 , 並將其視為兩岸展開統一談判的先決條件 。

對於台美關係 , 這篇報導表示 , 馬英九如果在2008年總統大選中勝出 , 華府必然感到高興 , 因為美國認為陳總統會魯莽地激怒中國。華府對陳總統的不滿從上個月拒絕他於訪問拉丁美洲途中在美國過夜 , 而只准他在阿拉斯加過境加油一事上展現出來 ; 而馬英九於三月訪問美國9天的情況就完全不同了 , 他不但有機會就他如何降低兩岸緊張關係的規劃 , 發表一系列的高規格演講 , 而且他在華府的地位更因與包括副國務卿佐立克（Robert Zoellick）及駐聯合國大使波頓（John Bolton）等會面而得到確認 。

文中並引述台灣政治分析家的話表示 , 北京對馬英九在美國受到高規格接待一事保持沉默 , 是值得注意的現象 。