Having phoned KC who just came back from 台灣 about this article ,  we wonder if "台獨真的會這麼簡單就凋謝 。"
 
I have been in 台灣 many times since last November ,  the time I moved back to Asia. Nearly every time in 台灣 is to visit customers (about 10) ,  who are located in 台中 ,  苗栗 ,  and 豐原. These 台灣 businessmen are all having production sites in 東莞 and 深圳. And nearly all of them are in the market of sporting goods ,  such as tennis rackets ,  baseball bats ,  fishing rods ,  golf clubs and bicycles. They are all started their business 30+ years ago ,  as plywood manufacturers in Taiwan ,  (then the plywood center in 台灣 was located in 豐原.) They have not gotten any help from Taiwanese government ,  regardless 國民黨 or 民進黨; not even any help in business or political environment. The only thing they got from 台灣 government is 扯後腿. They have been the victims of 阿扁's policy or lack-of-policy. Although as a whole they are the dominating global sports equipment producer (they are the top three tennis racket producers and top three composite bike producers) ,  but their profit becomes very thin and there is a need to upgrade their technology to the next level. For many years ,  they are not able to establish their own R&D ,  due to the lack of guidance and help from the government. Now they are looking into their suppliers to help them to upgrade their technology. I am their hope. And I can also sense their frustration with the political environment which curtails their smooth development effort (they spent too much time to worry where to move their production sites and where to get quality labor force).

From the above anecdote ,  I agree with Ross's conclusion about the dead end of 台灣 independence movement ,  because the betrayal of 阿扁 and 民進黨 in every category: economics ,  environmental ,  international relationship ,  education ,  crime rate ,  corruption. Of course there are still some die-hard 台獨份子 ,  will not give up their banner no matter what. But economics is the life line of Taiwan ,  and for 6 years ,  there is absolutely no improvement but sliding. The balance has been tipped towards China as Ross pointed out. Taiwan has not chip to bargain at all. Actually ,  China should thank 阿扁 for his good work ,  making unification much easier now.

Chih Chang

我想許信良把美國  ,  中國  ,  國民黨  ,  以及民進黨在罷扁風浪中的  ,  有苦說不出的焦點  ,  坦白說出來 。沒有人要呂秀蓮 ! 不過  ,  扁倒了  ,  以現狀  ,  呂秀蓮就穩做總統 。那不就是這些勢力給自己找麻煩 。她是留美的律師 。美國奈何不了她 。所以  ,  除非豫先排好呂秀蓮不能按法接任  ,  這些勢力  ,  不會去倒扁的 。呂秀蓮樂得嘴裡偏扁  ,  讓大家不知如何是好 。她若照許信良所說  ,  在此表明立場  ,  無異是政治切腹 。

阿扁做繭自纏  ,  給美國抓住把柄  ,  只好壓低台獨聲調 。羅斯的「凋謝中的台獨運動」  ,  可能就是美國對阿扁的指使或啟示 。換句話說  ,  台獨運動可能還沒有真正的凋謝  ,  而這文章不過是美國指給阿扁去走的路 。 妙哉 。

這駒戲  ,  假如弄巧成拙  ,  呂秀蓮真當上總統  ,  好戲在後頭 。

哲銘
2006.06.11